Contrail Cost Explorer

Inputs

Scenario

Implementation cost

Upfront R&D [$M]

The upfront R&D necessary to make contrail management standard practice, in millions of US dollars. This R&D value is amortized over years at a discount rate of % to come up with an annual cost.

Ongoing R&D [$M / year]

The ongoing R&D necessary to maintain and improve contrail management practices over time, in millions of US dollars.

Forecast & Measurement Infrastructure [$M / year]

The recurring cost of infrastructure required to forecast, monitor, and measure contrails, in millions of US dollars per year.

Workforce [$M / year]

The additional human capital necessary to implement contrail avoidance at scale, in millions of US dollars per year.

Fuel cost

Additional Fuel [%]

Additional fuel (across the whole fleet) for contrail avoidance, as a percentage of global annual fuel consumption.

Mitigation Potential

Contrail Cirrus Effective Radiative Forcing [mW / m2]

Global annual contrail effective radiative forcing (ERF). Central estimate and bounds taken from Lee et al. 2021.

Mitigation Efficacy [%]

Contrail avoidance will never be 100% effective. This factor reduces the mitigation potential to capture errors in contrail forecasting and infeasible avoidance measures.

Additional Inputs

Scenario

Time Horizon [years]

Time horizon for calculating CO2-eq Global Warming Potential.

Fuel

Fuel Cost [$ / gal]   ($ / tonne)

The average cost of Jet-A fuel, in US dollars per US gallon.

Rerouting Factor

This factor scales the additional fuel cost to account for other potential rerouting costs, like overflight charges and engine maintenance.

Outputs

Warming avoided


Mtonnes CO2-eq per year (GWP-)

Mitigation cost

$
per tonne CO2-eq (GWP-)

$
per flight

Total cost

$M
per year

%

of expected 2025 aviation expenses

Additional fuel

$M
per year

$
per tonne CO2-eq (GWP-)

Infrastructure

$M
per year

$
per tonne CO2-eq (GWP-)

R&D

$M
per year

$
per tonne CO2-eq (GWP-)

Workforce

$M
per year

$
per tonne CO2-eq (GWP-)